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April 28, 2011
Gobbler Forecast April 29 - May 5 - 0
by James Nelson
As we enter into May I’ve decided to take a look at the top 20 typical NWTF record birds and the dates they were killed on. Eight of the top 20 were taken after May 1st. On this week's map I’ve marked the states and dates of harvest as a reference. I also looked at the calls used, I was little surprised to see 14 of 20 were called in with a diaphragm.
The top state was Iowa (with 5 entries) followed by Missouri (4 entries). Four record birds were harvested before April 15th, eight were taken between April 15th and April 30th. May 1st to the 15th yielded 6 entries and there were only two after May 15th.
Now back to the forecast for April 29th through May 5th. These dates are sandwiched around a new moon on the 2nd, which will help get the birds moving if weather cooperates.
Here’s the forecast for your regions:
NE – Friday thru Sunday look partly cloudy in most areas. Next week looks like showers and t-storms. My pick here is Sunday. Best days: April 29th, 30th and May 1st.
SE – Drier conditions this weekend make it a good bet. T-storms early next week could reduce gobbling in some areas. Best days: April 29th, 30th, May 1st and 5th.
Great Lakes – Saturday AM looks like good conditions in many areas. Showers return next week with a break on Tuesday. Best days: May 30th, April 1st and 3rd.
NC – Wind, snow and rain Friday and Saturday. Sunday could be good, but Monday during the new moon is my choice. Best days: May 2nd and 3rd.
SC – Windy conditions on Friday, the day after high winds are normally very good for calling. Cool Sunday but warming the first part of the week. Best days: April 30th, May 3rd and 4th.
NW – Cloudy and cool Friday, sunny and warmer for the weekend. This should be the best weekend of the year here. Best days: April 30th, May 1st, 4th and 5th.
SW – Wind Friday, cold Sunday in many areas. A rising barometer and sun from then on should heat things up. Best days: May 1st, 2n, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Moon – Effects to watch are Apogee on the 29th, new moon on the 2nd and peak north declination on the 5th.
Tip – Many southern states are in post-breeding gobbling. The toms will be on the move looking for more hens. Mix your calls up and try your diaphragm, as I stated before 70 percent of the top 20 were called in with this method.
To find the forecast in your turkey woods go to OL Weather